Under the Big Tent

The Degradation and Resilience of Political Coalitions

After the 2024 election, there have been seemingly endless arguments over where the Democratic Party should go next.

An ongoing refrain in Democratic politics post 2024 is iterations of “We’re a Big Tent” and “Democrats need the voices of both moderates and progressives” or, in the words of Gavin Newsom, ““I want it to be the (Joe) Manchin to (Zohran) Mamdani party. I want it to be inclusive.” But, what Newsom, and other advocates of the Big Tent are conveniently brushing over is that well, Joe Manchin left the Democratic Party¹, and long before the rise of Zohran Mamdani.

My current doomer thesis is that the Democratic Big Tent is doomed to fail electorally, except in off-year elections and midterms, and it’s going to take a marquee loss to JD Vance in 2028 for the Democratic Party to recalibrate into a coalition that can decisively win presidential elections, and especially, win a Senate majority that can actually govern².

This is why I hold this belief.